Bitcoin clears $64,000, but chart signals still look cautious

Bitcoin moved above $64,000 after spending roughly two weeks struggling at that level, giving crypto investors a short-term breakout to watch. The catch: several chart indicators cited by Decrypt still show a market that has not fully shaken off its longer-term downtrend.

Bitcoin reached a Tuesday high of $65,511 before settling around $64,858, according to Decrypt’s market analysis. That left the token nearly flat on the day, down 0.18% on the developing daily candle, even after clearing what traders call resistance, a price zone where selling has repeatedly stopped rallies.

Macro conditions look friendlier for risk assets

The move came as U.S. stocks rose Tuesday. The S&P 500 added 0.39% and the Nasdaq gained 0.67%, helped by a June Producer Price Index report that came in cooler than expected, according to TheStreet. Producer prices fell 0.3% from the prior month, with lower gasoline prices driving much of the decline.

Rate expectations also shifted. CME FedWatch data cited by Decrypt showed the implied odds of a July Federal Reserve rate increase falling to 12.3%, down from 31% a week earlier. Rate expectations matter for crypto because higher rates can make safer income-producing assets more competitive, while stable or lower rates tend to reduce that pressure on riskier assets such as tech stocks and digital tokens.

Other market stress signals were calm. The VIX, a stock-market volatility gauge often called Wall Street’s fear index, fell to 16.5. Decrypt also noted that Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citi reported second-quarter earnings above analyst estimates.

The Bitcoin chart is less settled

Bitcoin’s break above $64,000 pushed it just outside a descending price channel that has been in place since May highs near $82,000, according to Decrypt’s chart review. A descending channel is a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, often used by traders to mark a downtrend.

The breakout remains narrow. Decrypt’s analysis said a decline of about 5% from current levels would put Bitcoin back into that channel and restore the prior bearish setup.

The longer-term signal is still cautious. Decrypt’s aggregate indicator score stood at minus 36%, led by a death cross. A death cross happens when the 50-day average price falls below the 200-day average price, a widely watched sign that longer-term momentum has turned negative. Decrypt said the gap between those two moving averages has not yet started to close.

Shorter-term indicators were more mixed. The Average Directional Index, or ADX, was 23.4. ADX measures trend strength on a scale from 0 to 100, without saying whether the trend is up or down. Traders often treat 25 as a dividing line between a stronger trend and choppier trading. Decrypt said the reading suggests the bearish trend is weakening, though it has not fully disappeared.

Directional indicators were also shifting from DI- to DI+, according to Decrypt. In plain English, that means bearish pressure is giving way to bullish pressure, but the change has not yet been confirmed.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sat at 55.7. RSI measures whether an asset looks stretched after recent buying or selling. Decrypt described that level as neutral to slightly bullish, with overbought territory usually starting above 70.

Prediction markets still favor a drop first

Traders on Myriad were less convinced by the breakout. A Myriad market cited by Decrypt showed users assigning 66.6% odds that Bitcoin reaches $55,000 before it returns to $84,000. The market showed $209,000 in volume.

Another Myriad market on Bitcoin’s July 16 price showed stronger odds of staying above lower levels than of making a larger jump: 100% for above $62,000, 84% for above $64,000, 21% for above $66,000, and 1% for above $68,000 or $70,000.

The result is a split picture: Bitcoin has cleared a level that recently capped rallies, while the longer-term chart and prediction-market pricing still point to caution.

This story draws on original reporting from Decrypt.