Bitcoin rebound to $64,000 tied to Coinbase whale demand, CryptoQuant says

Bitcoin moved back to around $64,000, and CryptoQuant says buying tied to large U.S. traders on Coinbase helped push the rebound. For retail investors, the signal to watch is demand: if big buyers are more active on U.S. venues, that can change short-term price pressure across the market.

In a Friday blog post, CryptoQuant contributor Burak Kesmeci pointed to the Coinbase Premium Index, a measure that compares Bitcoin prices on Coinbase with prices on Binance’s BTC/USDT market. When Bitcoin trades at a higher price on Coinbase than on Binance, analysts often read it as stronger U.S. buying demand. When it is negative, Coinbase demand is weaker by that measure.

Kesmeci said the index for both Bitcoin and Ether remained below zero, but had recovered from recent local lows. He added that both had moved back above their 14-day simple moving average, or SMA14. A simple moving average is the average reading over a set period, used by traders to smooth out short-term swings.

According to Kesmeci, that recovery in the premium helped explain Bitcoin’s rise from $58,000 to $64,000 and Ether’s move from $1,500 to $1,750. CryptoQuant data cited in the analysis put the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index at minus 0.08, with the gauge last turning positive on daily time frames more than two months earlier.

Why the Coinbase premium is getting attention

CryptoQuant’s argument centers on large traders, often called whales because their orders can have an outsized effect on market liquidity. Kesmeci said U.S. whale activity has been a leading signal for Bitcoin’s trend direction across short, medium and longer time frames.

The key limit in the current setup is that the index is still negative. Kesmeci described the latest move as supportive of a short-term bounce, while saying a broader trend change would require the Coinbase Premium Index to rise above zero.

That distinction matters because a rebound above a moving average can show improving momentum, while a move above zero would imply Coinbase prices are actually higher than Binance prices. In plain English: demand has improved, according to CryptoQuant, but the U.S. premium has not fully flipped positive.

ETF flows remain a second market signal

Bitcoin Suisse also pointed to changing conditions in a Friday thread on X, saying, “This week, something shifted.” The crypto finance provider cited eight weeks of exchange-traded fund outflows and Bitcoin reaching a 21-month low as part of the backdrop.

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are products that trade on stock exchanges and give investors exposure to assets such as Bitcoin without requiring them to hold the token directly. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had seen their first net inflows after a $2.7 billion run of outflows, according to reporting that cited Farside Investors data.

Farside data also showed sentiment remained sensitive to price moves. On Thursday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight day of net outflows totaling $95.3 million.

Bitcoin Suisse’s X thread cited $157 million flowing into Bitcoin ETFs and $109 million into Ether, along with a “bottom signal framework” flashing. It also said the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 23, a level the firm presented as part of its market read.

Together, the data points give traders a mixed but improving picture: CryptoQuant sees stronger U.S.-linked spot demand, while ETF flows continue to shift day by day. Neither firm presented the move as confirmation of a lasting Bitcoin uptrend.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.