Bitcoin falls as Iran ceasefire break lifts oil above $75

Bitcoin fell back toward $61,500 on Wednesday as markets reacted to renewed Middle East tensions and a jump in oil prices. For everyday investors, the move tied crypto risk appetite to a familiar macro pressure point: higher energy prices can feed inflation worries and shift expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates.

TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph showed BTC trading below $62,000 after the Wall Street open, with the daily decline around 2.5%. The drop came after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was finished during a press conference at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey.

“To me, I think it’s over,” Trump said, referring to the ceasefire, according to Cointelegraph.

Oil move puts rates back in focus

The market reaction was not limited to crypto. US WTI crude oil rose above $75 a barrel on the day, reaching its highest level since June 22, according to Cointelegraph and TradingView data.

The move followed reports cited by The Kobeissi Letter that the US and Iran were considering reimposing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping route. A disruption threat there can push crude prices higher because traders price in the risk that fewer barrels will reach the market.

Higher oil prices can complicate the inflation picture. If fuel and transport costs rise, investors may expect the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy tighter. Monetary policy refers to the Fed’s use of interest rates to influence borrowing, spending and inflation.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which tracks market-implied probabilities for Fed rate decisions, showed higher odds of an interest-rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting, while July was still expected to leave rates unchanged, according to Cointelegraph. On prediction market Kalshi, users put the chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026 at 55%.

For Bitcoin, rate expectations matter because higher rates can make cash and bonds more attractive relative to riskier assets. Crypto often trades like a high-volatility risk asset during macro shocks, even when the news does not directly involve blockchain markets.

Traders watch the $61,000 area

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on X that he expected Bitcoin to retest the $61,000 area. He described that level as “crucial” in a separate post.

Van de Poppe also said earlier that Bitcoin’s chart did not yet show a major problem in his view, noting that price remained above $60,000 despite renewed conflict concerns in the Middle East. He wrote that if the correction stayed relatively shallow, he did not expect lower market levels to start appearing.

Another trader, Jelle, said on X that tensions with Iran were flaring again just as Bitcoin had tried to regain a previous trading range. He said the setup was beginning to look like a move toward “cheaper accumulation opportunities,” according to Cointelegraph.

Those comments reflect trader positioning and interpretation, not confirmed market direction. The confirmed moves on Wednesday were clear: Bitcoin lost ground, crude oil climbed above $75, and rate-hike expectations shifted as geopolitical risk returned to the front of the market’s attention.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.