Bitcoin loss metric puts bear-market bottom watch at 42 days

Bitcoin has spent 42 days in a familiar bear-market setup, according to K33 Research, after more than half of BTC supply was held at a loss in early June. For everyday investors, the signal is worth watching because past crossings of that threshold have lined up with the final stretch before Bitcoin’s broad cycle lows, though history is not a guarantee.

“Supply in loss” measures the share of Bitcoin whose last recorded purchase price sits above the current market price. In plain English, it estimates how much of the coin supply is underwater.

K33 Research said in its H1 2026 Round-Up report that Bitcoin supply in loss moved above 50% on June 5, the first time that happened in the current bear market. The firm uses that level as one way to track how far a Bitcoin downturn has progressed.

What the 50% threshold has meant before

According to K33, previous Bitcoin bear markets reached their main price low no later than 101 days after supply in loss rose above 50%. The timing has varied across cycles.

• K33 said the shortest window was 13 days in 2022.
• The firm said the 2018 bear market took 23 days after the 50% mark to find its low.
• K33 said the 2014 downturn took 101 days after the same signal.

With 42 days elapsed since June 5, K33’s data places the current period as Bitcoin’s second-longest post-threshold window so far. The firm also said returns over the year following this type of event have “tend[ed] to be very solid.”

Separate data from CryptoQuant showed Bitcoin supply in loss at 46% on July 17. Earlier in July, CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr. estimated that the metric was roughly two months away from levels that have matched prior bear-market bottoms.

Another cost-basis model is also flashing stress

CryptoQuant also pointed to a separate model called realized cap variance, or RCV. The model compares realized cap with market cap and is used to show how compressed or stretched investor cost basis has become relative to Bitcoin’s current valuation.

CryptoQuant contributor Crazzyblockk wrote in a Thursday QuickTake post that the RCV model is now in the bottom 6% of its historical range. The post said the model’s standardized Z-score, a reading that shows how far the metric sits from its normal range, is at -2.35.

Crazzyblockk said negative readings in this area suggest the “emotional premium” built during rallies has mostly been removed from the market. “The metric doesn’t read narrative, it reads the distribution of capital,” the contributor wrote.

The CryptoQuant post said earlier periods when the model stayed below a -2.0 Z-score, including late 2018, mid-2022 and early 2015, came before 12-month returns above 75%. It also said the lowest reading in the dataset, -4.68 in November 2018, occurred close to Bitcoin’s cycle low near $3,792.

Bitcoin was shown at $63,069.53, up 1.70%, in the market data cited alongside the analysis.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.