Bitcoin steadies above $61,000 as weak jobs data shifts rate bets

Bitcoin moved back above $61,000 after weaker U.S. labor data made traders less confident that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. For everyday investors, the move is a reminder that crypto can react quickly when rate expectations change, especially when money is also leaving crowded parts of the stock market.

U.S. non-farm payrolls, a monthly measure of jobs added by employers excluding farms and a few other categories, rose by 57,000 in June, according to Yahoo Finance. Economists had expected 113,000 new jobs. The U.S. Labor Department also revised April and May payroll figures lower by a combined 74,000 jobs.

Bitcoin’s rebound followed a drop to $57,750 on Wednesday, according to market data cited by Cointelegraph. The token was recently shown at $62,823.14, up 1.49%, while Ether was listed at $1,780.61, up 0.77%.

Rate expectations moved after the jobs report

Weak hiring data can change the market’s view of the Fed because the central bank raises rates to cool inflation but must also consider employment. Higher rates tend to make cash and bonds more attractive, while lower rate expectations can support risk assets and assets with limited supply, including Bitcoin and gold.

After the jobs figures, investors reduced the implied probability of a Fed rate hike by September to 54% from 64% a day earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The tool uses futures pricing to estimate market expectations for Fed policy decisions.

Gold also rose Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate crude oil held below $70, according to TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph. Oil prices had fallen after Qatar’s Foreign Ministry described “positive progress” in recent discussions between U.S. and Iranian representatives.

Lower oil prices can ease inflation pressure because energy costs feed into transportation, production and consumer prices. Cointelegraph reported that softer jobs data and lower inflation pressure are viewed by some investors as conditions that could support more monetary liquidity, meaning more money available in the financial system.

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was at $6.73 trillion, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data cited by Cointelegraph. A central bank balance sheet tracks assets the Fed holds, such as Treasuries and bonds.

AI weakness added to the rotation debate

The Nasdaq 100, which is heavy in large technology stocks, gave back the prior three days of gains, according to TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph. Several AI-linked hardware names were hit harder: SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital and Applied Materials each posted intraday losses of at least 9% on Thursday, according to Cointelegraph.

That selloff has fed a debate over whether capital may shift from richly valued AI trades into assets such as gold and Bitcoin. Cointelegraph said such a shift could make a move toward $70,000 possible, though that remains a market scenario rather than a confirmed outcome.

Onchain analyst and CryptoQuant author gaah_im pointed to signs of seller exhaustion in Bitcoin. Onchain data means activity recorded directly on a blockchain. The analyst said Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio, which compares profits taken by sellers with losses realized by sellers, had fallen to its lowest level since 2022.

Gaah_im also said the net share of Bitcoin supply in profit had turned negative relative to total supply, a condition the analyst described as historically tied to cycle bottoms. That interpretation is not a guarantee of a price bottom, but it shows why some traders are watching blockchain data alongside macroeconomic reports.

Cointelegraph also linked part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness to disappointment around Strategy, the Bitcoin-heavy company formerly known as MicroStrategy. The report cited concern over dilution from faster MSTR share issuance used to buy back some debt and fund preferred-stock dividends, despite Strategy’s reported 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion enterprise value.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.