Bitcoin tests key long-term level after weekend rise toward $63,500

Bitcoin moved close to $63,500 over the weekend, putting a widely watched long-term price marker back in play for crypto investors. The move matters because BTC is testing whether recent buying can hold above its 200-week simple moving average, a trend line traders often use to judge longer-term momentum.

TradingView data showed BTC/USD centered near $62,700 into Sunday’s weekly close. Cointelegraph reported that level aligned with Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average, or SMA, which is the average closing price over the past 200 weeks. Traders watch it because a price above the line can be read as support, while a move below can turn the same area into resistance.

Bitcoin reached $63,450 on Saturday, its highest level in nearly two weeks, during a three-day US holiday weekend. Cointelegraph attributed the move partly to thinner exchange order books, meaning fewer resting buy and sell orders were available to absorb trades.

Traders flag squeeze risk and Monday weakness

Market commentator Exitpump said on X that passive sell supply was weighing on price from above. Passive supply refers to limit sell orders waiting in the order book, which can slow or cap a rally when price reaches those levels.

Daan Crypto Trades pointed to short liquidations as Bitcoin climbed. A short liquidation happens when traders betting on a lower price are forced to close positions as the market moves against them, which can add more buying pressure. CoinGlass data cited by Daan showed $167 million in total crypto liquidations over 24 hours.

Daan described the move as a short squeeze and said the next test was whether the $62,600 area, tied to the weekly 200 moving average, could act as support or whether the rally mainly cleared out leveraged positions before another drop.

Another trader, Killa, warned on X that Bitcoin had weakened on each of the prior seven Mondays. Killa said that if BTC kept rising into Monday, a 3% to 4% pullback was possible. That was a trader’s view, not a confirmed market outcome.

ETF flows and Fed expectations add to the setup

QCP Capital said in a Friday market note that crypto was showing “greener shoots” after US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds returned to net inflows. An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, lets investors buy exposure to Bitcoin through a stock-market product rather than directly holding the token.

According to QCP, US spot Bitcoin ETFs brought in $224 million on Thursday, ending a six-session run of outflows. The firm said that followed about $2.4 billion in redemptions, suggesting some investors were buying after the decline.

QCP also linked the broader risk-asset backdrop to US economic data. Cointelegraph reported that the latest US nonfarm payrolls report came in below expectations, reducing some expectations for more aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. Higher rates can pressure speculative assets by making cash and bonds more attractive, while softer rate expectations can support risk appetite.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed close to an 80% probability that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at its July 29 meeting. QCP said more supportive Consumer Price Index data, a key inflation reading, would be needed for broader confirmation that markets were pricing in a softer Fed stance.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.