Kalshi tells Netflix to pull trailer for prediction markets documentary
Kalshi says a Netflix trailer misleads viewers about a sports trade shown in Nevada, where the company is under a court-ordered ban.
By Jordan Bell · Startups & Deals Reporter
· 3 min read
Kalshi has demanded that Netflix remove a trailer for “Instadocs: The Prediction Games,” putting the Kalshi Netflix trailer dispute at the center of a bigger fight over prediction markets and how they are shown to mainstream viewers. For investors watching the fast-growing event-contract business, the clash highlights a familiar risk: regulation can shape the story as much as user growth.
Kalshi sent Netflix a cease-and-desist letter on Friday, saying the trailer is defamatory and includes fabricated material along with false or misleading claims, according to the company’s letter. Netflix has not accepted that characterization. A Netflix spokesperson told The Hollywood Reporter that none of the documentary footage was fabricated.
“Instadocs: The Prediction Games” is part of Netflix’s fast-turnaround “Instadoc” documentary series, according to Netflix. The film covers the rise of prediction markets and includes interviews with Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour, Netflix said.
Prediction markets are platforms where users trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events. In practice, they can look similar to betting apps to consumers, which is why regulatory status is central to how companies such as Kalshi are viewed.
Why does Kalshi want Netflix to remove the trailer?
Kalshi’s complaint focuses on footage tied to a Las Vegas event where people gathered to watch the World Cup final. In the trailer, one attendee says he likes betting on Kalshi, and another person displays what appears to be a $5,000 wager on a phone.
The issue is location and timing. Kalshi is currently barred from operating in Nevada under a court order, according to TechCrunch’s earlier reporting on the Nevada case. Kalshi says the phone image in the trailer shows a trade placed on May 16, 2025, before that order was in place, rather than a trade made during the Las Vegas gathering.
In its letter, Kalshi argued that Netflix gave viewers the impression that a person had traded sports event contracts in Nevada on July 19, 2026. Kalshi said that impression was false because the screenshot was from 2025.
Kalshi also said in the letter that it had recently spoken with a Netflix employee who agreed the receipt would not appear in the documentary when it is released on Sunday, July 26. Kalshi said Netflix still declined to remove the same image from the trailer shown on the Netflix app homepage.
What does Netflix say about the footage?
Netflix does not dispute the 2025 date on the screenshot, according to The Hollywood Reporter. The company’s spokesperson said the footage was shot at the Winible World Cup Watch Weekend in Las Vegas on July 17, 2026.
The spokesperson told The Hollywood Reporter that the trader shown with the Spain trade displayed a screenshot of a bet made in May 2025, before any Nevada court order. The spokesperson also said any specific bets or trades discussed that weekend were between the individual and the app used for those transactions.
The dispute lands just before the documentary’s scheduled release. It also adds another public flashpoint for prediction markets, a category that has been drawing attention from media companies, regulators and consumers as platforms push event-based trading into sports and politics-adjacent conversations.
For Kalshi, the core issue is whether the trailer connects its brand to activity in a state where it is not allowed to operate. For Netflix, the response so far is that the footage was genuine and that the disputed screenshot reflected an older trade.
This story draws on original reporting from TechCrunch.
