Bitcoin bear market bottom in August? 10x Research flags $63,000 close
10x Research says an August close above $63,000 could confirm a Bitcoin bottom in its model, though rates and potential selling remain risks.
By Theo Nakamura · Staff Writer
· 3 min read
A Bitcoin bear market bottom in August remains a conditional call, according to 10x Research. The firm said Bitcoin would need to finish the month above $63,000 for its framework to confirm a bottom, a signal that could matter to investors watching whether the latest decline has run its course.
10x Research founder Markus Thielen said Bitcoin missed the comparable technical threshold at July’s close, Cointelegraph reported. An August monthly close near $63,000 would shift several of the firm’s unspecified cycle indicators into bullish territory, according to the report.
The figure is a confirmation level in 10x Research’s analysis, not a guarantee that Bitcoin has already established a lasting low. In its own Aug. 2 post, the research firm said Bitcoin had failed to confirm a bottom in July and pointed to $63,000 as the level in focus.
What would confirm a Bitcoin bear market bottom in August?
Under 10x Research’s stated framework, Bitcoin would need to close August above $63,000. The firm said that outcome would turn several of its cycle indicators bullish. It did not disclose the full methodology for those indicators in the publicly available material.
10x Research had a more cautious scenario in June. Thielen then said Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 and reach $55,000 before finding the cycle low, CoinDesk reported. His timing window for a possible low was late August through October.
The two views describe different stages of the same uncertain setup. The June scenario allowed for additional losses before a low; the August update set a price condition that, if met at month-end, would confirm a reversal signal in the firm’s model.
Rates and potential supply are the risks
10x Research’s base case was that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged. But the firm said further increases in the 10-year Treasury yield could lead to a September rate hike, a development it viewed as a risk to the August-bottom case, according to Cointelegraph.
The firm also identified the Iran conflict as an unpredictable macro risk. Its own post said the direction of the 10-year yield could determine whether August confirms the bottom or pushes that outcome back.
On the supply side, 10x Research estimated that miners shifting parts of their businesses toward artificial intelligence could create roughly 100,000 BTC of selling pressure. It also expected some Bitcoin treasury companies to unwind holdings, though it described macroeconomic conditions as the larger market risk.
- Potential confirmation: An August monthly Bitcoin close above $63,000, under 10x Research’s framework.
- Earlier downside case: A decline below $60,000, potentially toward $55,000, before a low.
- Timing window cited in June: Late August to October.
- Risks cited by the firm: Higher Treasury yields, a more restrictive Fed path, geopolitical uncertainty and potential selling from miners and treasury companies.
10x Research said it continued to favor long positions at the time of its analysis, but would move to a neutral stance if Bitcoin broke key support levels and moving averages. That is the firm’s positioning view, rather than a confirmed market outcome.
For investors, the practical takeaway is that the $63,000 marker is one research firm’s month-end test, while the path to any market bottom remains dependent on price action and the risks the firm identified.
This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.
