Bitcoin drops below $65K as Iran tensions lift oil and yields
BTC hit a three-day low as US-Iran tensions pushed Brent crude above $100 and lifted July Fed rate-hike odds near 40%.
By Sofia Marchetti · Columnist
· 3 min read
Bitcoin below 65K became the market’s latest stress signal Thursday, with BTC falling to a three-day low of $64,799 on Bitstamp, according to TradingView. The drop hit alongside a broader slide in risk assets as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions drove oil prices higher and pushed investors to reprice interest-rate risk.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that he would hold Iran responsible for recent Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabian commercial vessels. In the same post, Trump said he was “very disappointed” in the Houthis and referred to attacks on U.S. ships from 2025.
Stocks also weakened by the New York close. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel, its highest level since early June, according to market data cited by Cointelegraph and TradingView.
Oil above $100 can matter for investors because energy costs feed into inflation expectations. When markets expect inflation to stay hotter, bond yields often rise as investors demand more return for holding longer-term debt.
Why did bitcoin fall below 65K?
Bitcoin fell as traders reacted to a mix of geopolitical risk, higher oil prices and rising U.S. bond yields. Crypto often trades like a risk asset, meaning it can fall when investors pull back from growth-sensitive trades or expect tighter monetary policy.
The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X that inflation expectations and interest rates were rising sharply again. The market commentary account also pointed to U.S. 10-year bond yields reaching 18-month highs, a sign that investors were demanding higher returns on government debt.
Rate expectations moved too. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 0.25 percentage point Federal Reserve rate increase in July near 40% on Thursday, up from about 12% one week earlier. Higher rates are often a headwind for crypto because they make cash and government bonds more competitive with assets that do not produce yield.
Bitcoin was recently shown around $65,064, down 1.49%. Other major crypto assets also traded lower, including Ether at $1,882.11, down 2.67%, Solana at $76.05, down 2.46%, XRP at $1.11, down 2.78%, and Dogecoin at $0.06952, down 4.65%.
What traders are watching next
Short-term bitcoin forecasts split after the move. The commentator Exitpump wrote on X late Wednesday that the July rally was likely ending, saying bitcoin was near resistance and that a break below $65,000 would support a bearish trade setup.
Trader Jelle took a more constructive view, writing on X that bitcoin was “still making progress.” Jelle said a move through the local trading area could open a path toward $70,000 and help form a new range.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to a moving-average level near $64,073 as important support. A moving average is a trend line based on average prices over a set period, often used by traders to judge whether momentum is holding or weakening.
Van de Poppe wrote on X that bitcoin had reached its target area, but said staying above that moving-average level could support a higher near-term valuation. He identified $68,000 as the next resistance zone and said a successful break through that area could put $73,000 in view.
This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.
