Bitcoin supply in profit nears 60%, but CryptoQuant urges caution
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin profitability has rebounded from its 2026 low, though long-term holder data has yet to confirm a recovery.
By Sofia Marchetti · Columnist
· 3 min read
Bitcoin supply in profit has climbed back toward 60%, giving investors a cleaner read on how much of the network is above water after the latest drawdown. CryptoQuant data, however, shows the recovery has not yet cleared the levels that analysts use to confirm a durable turn in the market.
CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN said the share of Bitcoin worth more than its last acquisition price rose to 57.5% on July 22. That was up from 46.2% on June 30, which the contributor identified as the low point for 2026.
The improvement means more Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized gains than they were less than a month earlier. For a retail investor, the key point is that profitability can improve before the broader market has fully reset, so analysts tend to pair this metric with other onchain signals.
What is bitcoin supply in profit?
Bitcoin supply in profit measures the percentage of coins that are valued above the price at which they last moved onchain. If the reading rises, more of the network’s supply is priced above its prior transaction level, which can suggest reduced stress among holders.
CryptoQuant’s analysis said the current setup still falls short of past recovery conditions. ThechessONCHAIN pointed to two thresholds used in previous bear-market endings: total supply in profit above 64%, and a 30-day simple moving average of long-term holder spent output profit ratio, or LTH-SOPR, staying above 1 without slipping back for weeks.
A simple moving average is a rolling average that smooths out daily volatility. LTH-SOPR tracks whether coins held by long-term holders are moving at a profit or a loss compared with their previous onchain transaction price.
In CryptoQuant’s framing, a reading above 1 means long-term holder coins are mostly moving in profit. A reading below 1 means those coins are mostly moving at a loss, which can point to capitulation among longer-term investors.
Long-term holders, in this analysis, are entities whose Bitcoin has been dormant for at least six months. Their behavior is watched closely because coins moving after a long holding period can reveal whether experienced holders are selling into strength or realizing losses during market stress.
Why CryptoQuant says the recovery is still fragile
ThechessONCHAIN said Bitcoin already made one unsuccessful attempt to meet the recovery criteria earlier this year. From April 28 to June 1, the contributor said the 30-day average for LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 days and supply in profit reached 67%, before both measures weakened again.
Since that failed attempt, the 30-day average for LTH-SOPR has spent more than 50 days below 1, according to the CryptoQuant contributor. That keeps long-term holder realized losses in focus even as the broader supply-in-profit metric rebounds.
Cointelegraph previously reported that Bitcoin supply in loss crossed 50% in June, a level that has appeared before prior bear-market bottoms. The same report said demand signals remain mixed, with weak spot-market interest occurring alongside a rebound in institutional Bitcoin allocation.
Bitcoin was listed at $65,096.75, up 0.79%, in the market data accompanying the report. The onchain data points to a market that has improved from its 2026 profitability low, while CryptoQuant’s thresholds suggest confirmation of a fuller recovery has not arrived.
This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.
