Glassnode sees early Bitcoin bottom signal in losses from recent buyers

Bitcoin’s recent buyers are showing a pattern that Glassnode analysts say has appeared near past bear-market bottoms. For retail investors, the key point is simple: selling at a loss may be starting to ease among a group that bought late in the last bull-market run.

Cryptovizart, the pseudonymous lead research analyst at onchain analytics firm Glassnode, said in a Friday post on X that realized losses from Bitcoin holders who bought one to two years ago are giving an early signal to watch. Realized losses measure the dollar value of coins that move onchain for less than the price at which they were last acquired.

That cohort covers coins last moved between July 2024 and July 2025, a period when Bitcoin traded from about $62,800 to $107,000, according to the figures cited by Cryptovizart. With Bitcoin recently shown around $64,162 in market data included with the report, many of those buyers would now be below their entry price.

Why these losses get attention

Glassnode’s read focuses on behavior, not price alone. When investors who bought high give up and sell, their losses show up onchain. If that selling pressure keeps rising, it can signal continued stress. If it cools after a spike, analysts may read it as a sign that the most pressured sellers have started to run out.

Cryptovizart said bear markets have historically struggled to form lasting bottoms before this one-to-two-year holder group finishes selling into weakness. The analyst pointed to a 30-day moving average, which smooths daily data over a month, showing realized losses from the group recently moved above $75 million before beginning to turn lower.

That turn is the part Glassnode is watching. Cryptovizart said a rollover in the 30-day average has often appeared among the clearer early signs that the heaviest phase of distribution, meaning selling by existing holders, is behind the market.

The $69,000 level is back in focus

Glassnode’s latest The Week Onchain newsletter also highlighted about $69,000 as an important Bitcoin level. The firm said that area lines up with the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders, meaning the average price paid by investors who have held coins for a relatively brief period.

Cost basis matters because investors who bought near that level may be tempted to sell once they break even. Glassnode said the first test of that zone could draw a strong market response because the sellers most likely to exit are close to being made whole.

The same level also sits near Bitcoin’s former all-time high from the 2021 bull market, according to Glassnode. The firm said a strong move back above $69,000 would give the recovery more room, while a failure there would keep Bitcoin stuck in its current range.

Other market watchers cited by Cointelegraph have also been watching longer-term stochastic relative strength index readings. The relative strength index, or RSI, is a momentum gauge used to compare recent gains and losses, while the stochastic version measures where RSI sits within its recent range. Cointelegraph reported that two-month readings have been forming conditions associated with prior reversals.

Glassnode’s data does not confirm a bottom by itself. It does show that one historically important seller group is behaving in a way analysts associate with early bottom-building, while Bitcoin’s next widely watched test sits near $69,000.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.