Intel stock crash follows fourth-quarter forecast below Wall Street targets

The intel stock crash 2026 followed a fourth-quarter forecast that landed well below Wall Street expectations, overshadowing stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings. Intel shares closed at $65.76 on Oct. 30, down 26.31%, according to the company’s investor-relations page. The decline was one of Intel’s sharpest single-day drops in decades, though reports differed on its exact historical rank.

For investors, the key distinction was between Intel’s reported quarter and what it expects next. The company’s third-quarter revenue rose 21% from a year earlier to $16.5 billion, while adjusted earnings per share were $0.52. CNBC reported that adjusted earnings exceeded the $0.40 analyst consensus, while revenue was roughly in line with expectations.

Why did Intel stock fall after its earnings report?

Intel projected fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and non-GAAP, or adjusted, earnings per share of $0.25. CNBC reported that analysts had expected about $17.1 billion in revenue and adjusted earnings of $0.43 per share. At the midpoint of Intel’s revenue range, the outlook was about $1.6 billion below that revenue consensus.

The earnings-per-share forecast was also below Wall Street’s consensus. Adjusted figures exclude certain items under a company-defined methodology, so they can differ from results calculated under generally accepted accounting principles. Intel’s formal outlook also called for GAAP earnings per share of $0.10.

Bloomberg described the drop as Intel’s worst stock rout in more than four decades. Decrypt characterized it as the worst in more than 50 years. Both accounts pointed to the outlook rather than the third-quarter results as the immediate driver of the selloff.

AI and data-center growth did not offset PC weakness

Intel’s Data Center and AI unit generated $7.3 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 78% from a year earlier, according to Intel’s earnings release filed with the SEC. Its Client Computing and Physical AI group, which includes its PC-focused business, reported $8.1 billion in revenue, down 5% year over year.

Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in Intel’s release that the PC slowdown was expected to continue at least through the first half of the following year. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan said demand for Intel CPUs remained robust, and that the company’s immediate priority was increasing supply for its Xeon server processors.

That leaves Intel with a supply constraint rather than a reported absence of demand in data centers. CNBC reported that an explosion at an Intel fabrication plant in Israel led to an extended shutdown affecting shipments of 10-nanometer chips. The company said the incident was expected to reduce revenue by about $600 million across two quarters, CNBC reported.

Margins and investment spending remain in focus

Decrypt reported that Intel forecast a 38% non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter, down from 44.1% in the third quarter. Gross margin measures the share of revenue remaining after direct production costs. The publication also reported that Zinsner said Intel was unlikely to produce positive free cash flow the next year while funding manufacturing expansion.

Free cash flow is cash remaining after a company pays operating costs and capital investments. Intel’s outlook shows the pressure investors are weighing: growing data-center revenue and stated CPU demand alongside a weaker PC market, limited supply and continued spending on manufacturing capacity.

This story draws on original reporting from Decrypt.