Early local housing data show December sales uptick

Early local housing data showed a modest December pickup in existing-home sales, according to the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter. For investors watching housing-linked stocks and interest rates, the update offers an early read on whether lower mortgage rates helped bring some buyers back into the market.

Calculated Risk reported that sales in several early reporting local markets rose 2.5% in December from a year earlier on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Not seasonally adjusted, or NSA, means the numbers are compared as reported, without smoothing for calendar patterns such as holidays, weekdays or normal seasonal swings.

The December reading marked a change from November in the same early-reporting markets. Calculated Risk said those markets were down 10.8% year over year in November on an NSA basis.

The timing matters because closed home sales usually reflect deals signed weeks earlier. Calculated Risk said most December sales came from contracts signed in October and November. Mortgage rates averaged 6.25% in October and 6.24% in November, according to the newsletter, which said those rates were lower than the rates tied to closed sales in November.

Lower mortgage rates can affect housing activity by changing the monthly payment buyers face for the same home price and loan size. When rates fall, some buyers who were priced out can qualify again or choose to resume shopping. The early December data suggest that shift may have supported activity in at least some local markets, though the report covered only several early reporters.

Calculated Risk also flagged a calendar issue that could make the headline national data look less strong than the raw local comparison. December 2025 had 22 working days, compared with 21 working days in December 2024, the newsletter said. Because there was one additional working day in the newer period, the year-over-year gain in seasonally adjusted data is expected to be smaller than the NSA gain.

Seasonally adjusted data attempts to remove predictable calendar effects so one month can be compared more cleanly with another. That adjustment can reduce a year-over-year increase when the month being measured had more business days than the same month a year earlier.

The broader backdrop remains weak. Calculated Risk said 2025 may have recorded the lowest number of existing-home sales since 1995. The newsletter said the final result will be close, but even if 2025 sales finished above 2024, the two years would still rank as the weakest for sales since 1995 and below any year during the housing bust.

Calculated Risk cautioned that the December figures reflect only a small group of early reporting markets, with more local market data still to come.

This story draws on original reporting from Calculated Risk.