Goldman says World Cup hiring may add 40,000 jobs to June payrolls

Goldman Sachs says the World Cup may give the June U.S. jobs report a noticeable lift, adding about 40,000 positions to the monthly payroll count. For everyday investors, that matters because a one-time sports event can make the headline labor number look stronger than the broader hiring trend.

The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, due Thursday, measures how many jobs employers added or cut during the month, excluding farm workers and a few other categories. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect the report to show a gain of 115,000 jobs in June, down from 172,000 in May.

Goldman’s estimate is higher. The firm expects total nonfarm payrolls to rise by 140,000, according to CNBC, citing a note from Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels.

The difference comes partly from soccer. Goldman said data from Homebase, a payroll provider focused on small businesses, points to extra hiring tied to World Cup activity in U.S. host cities.

Where Goldman sees the World Cup effect

Goldman looked at labor-market data for the 11 U.S. cities hosting World Cup matches and compared it with other cities. According to CNBC, Homebase data showed employment in the host cities down 1.2% from a year earlier, while employment in other cities fell 3.5%.

That gap suggests the tournament may be helping local employers hold up better than they otherwise would. Big sporting events can require extra staff at hotels, restaurants, venues, transportation companies and event-service firms. Those jobs can show up in the payroll report even if they are temporary.

Goldman also pointed to a 9.5% increase in hospitality hiring in Homebase’s figures. Hospitality covers businesses such as hotels, restaurants and related service employers, the types of companies that often see extra demand when fans travel for major events.

Walker and Rindels said in their note that Goldman’s historical work indicates the World Cup could add roughly 40,000 jobs to June payroll growth. They said the impact would likely be concentrated in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation, according to CNBC.

Why the headline number may need context

The expected boost does not mean the labor market is accelerating across the board. Goldman’s reading still shows June hiring slowing from May’s 172,000 gain, even with the World Cup contribution included.

Goldman also flagged a quirk in the data process. The government’s first estimate of June payrolls has been revised lower in each of the past four years, according to CNBC. Payroll reports are released in stages, with initial figures followed by revisions as more complete employer data arrives.

That means investors may see a stronger June number at first, then later updates could change the picture. Goldman said the final tally could come in higher because past initial June readings have shown an upward bias, according to CNBC.

For comparison, June 2025 saw a loss of 20,000 jobs, CNBC reported. Goldman’s 140,000 estimate would be well above that level, while still below May’s pace.

The key takeaway is that the World Cup may add noise to a report investors already watch closely. A boost from host-city hiring would still count as real jobs, but it may say more about tournament demand than the economy’s underlying hiring momentum.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC Economy.