IBM quantum earnings impact could arrive by 2028, CEO says

IBM quantum earnings are starting to move from long-range science project to investor timetable. CEO Arvind Krishna told CNBC on Thursday that the company expects quantum computing to begin making a measurable contribution to revenue and earnings in 2028 or 2029.

For IBM shareholders, the comment puts a date on a business that has drawn attention for years but has not yet become a major financial driver. Krishna said on CNBC’s “Mad Money” that IBM is “pretty convinced” quantum computing can represent $1 trillion of value by the end of the 2030s.

When will IBM quantum computing affect earnings?

Krishna said investors could see quantum computing affect IBM’s “top line and bottom line” in 2028 or 2029. Top line means revenue, while bottom line refers to profit.

His remarks came the same day IBM and startup Algorithmiq announced research that the companies said showed quantum advantage. In their announcement, IBM and Algorithmiq described that as a case where a quantum computer handled certain computational problems more efficiently than today’s leading classical computers and also verified the results.

Quantum computing is being pursued because it may be able to work on certain problems that conventional computers struggle to solve efficiently. Krishna told CNBC that IBM’s quantum system identified behaviors in materials that researchers had not been able to see using classical computing.

Krishna said those discoveries could eventually support better batteries, new materials, improved fusion energy and more effective medicines. He told CNBC that “a quantum computer can do things better, faster, cheaper, in a way that normal classical computers cannot do at this time.”

IBM is trying to turn quantum research into a business

The commercial case is still contested. CNBC reported that skeptics point to high error rates, complicated hardware and the challenge of scaling systems as reasons quantum computing may remain years away from broad practical use.

Krishna pushed back on that timing concern, saying IBM is seeing progress toward real-world applications. In May, IBM announced plans for a standalone quantum chip foundry supported by a $1 billion commitment from the U.S. Department of Commerce through the CHIPS incentive, along with a matching $1 billion investment from IBM.

IBM is not alone in the race. CNBC reported that Alphabet and Rigetti Computing are also working to commercialize quantum computing.

IBM’s stock is still recovering from an earnings shock

Krishna also addressed investor concerns after IBM’s July earnings update rattled the stock. CNBC reported that IBM shares fell 25% on July 14 after the announcement, marking the stock’s worst single-day decline on record, and had recovered only 2% since then.

In that update, IBM said some customers had delayed capital spending projects. The disclosure raised concerns about near-term demand and whether artificial intelligence could create longer-term pressure on IBM’s software business, according to CNBC.

Krishna told CNBC the affected deals were delayed rather than lost. He said about 40% of them had closed within three to four weeks, calling that a sign of deferral rather than demand destruction.

The message to investors was clear in timing, even if the technology remains early: IBM wants quantum computing to become visible in its financial results before the end of the decade, while the company works to stabilize confidence after a sharp stock-market setback.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.