Trump Iran deal signals lift markets even as no agreement emerges
Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to a quick Hormuz deal, lifting stocks and lowering oil, but Iran described separate talks with Oman.
By Theo Nakamura · Staff Writer
· 3 min read
Trump Iran deal markets moved sharply this week after President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could arrive within days. Stocks rose, oil prices fell and bond yields declined, according to CNBC, even though no U.S.-Iran agreement was announced within the time frame officials had outlined.
For investors, the move reflects a repricing of risk rather than confirmation that a settlement exists. Restored shipping through Hormuz could reduce the threat of an energy-supply disruption, easing pressure on oil prices and the inflation concerns that can weigh on stocks and bonds.
Why do Iran deal signals move stocks and oil?
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital oil-shipping route between Iran and Oman. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said about 20 million barrels a day moved through it in 2024, equal to roughly one-fifth of global petroleum-liquids consumption. The agency also said few alternatives are available if transit is disrupted.
That puts a premium into oil prices when shipping is constrained or at risk. A credible path toward more normal passage can remove some of that premium. Lower expected energy costs can also improve the outlook for consumer inflation and corporate costs, which helps explain why investors often welcome signs of de-escalation.
Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday that the U.S. was in talks with Iran and that a deal on freedom of movement through the strait could come that day or the next. CNBC reported that oil tumbled after the comments as stocks climbed. Trump then said an agreement could come Wednesday or Thursday, following his statement that he had halted a planned large-scale attack because the outlines of a deal had been agreed.
Those signals arrived alongside an AI-driven technology rally, CNBC reported, so the administration's comments were not the sole force behind the equity gains. Oil also remains elevated compared with levels before the war.
What is the gap between a shipping plan and a broader Iran deal?
Iran disputed the premise of active negotiations with Washington. Its Foreign Ministry said Iran and Oman had been working for two months on an arrangement for commercial shipping and were in the final review and drafting stage, CNBC reported. Reuters, as summarized by CNBC, said the proposed arrangement could give Tehran more control over vessels using the route.
That is materially different from a durable U.S.-Iran settlement. Rystad Energy's Claudio Galimberti told CNBC that Iran wanted a service fee for the strait while the U.S. sought a return to free international waters, leaving a core disagreement over Hormuz. Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group said a limited Iran-Oman management plan would not deliver the broader settlement needed for full normalization.
The pattern has repeated. CNBC's review found that Trump had said or indicated more than 30 times by June that an Iran agreement was near, without a deal emerging. Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets described strong optimism bias among investors, while other analysts cited the view that both sides have reasons to seek a diplomatic exit.
The confirmation test is more demanding than an official timetable: analysts told Al Jazeera that sustained market relief would require a signed agreement and complete reopening or normalization of the strait. Until then, each new signal can change expectations quickly, but it does not establish that the wider conflict has been resolved.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.
