U.S.-Iran nuclear deal odds rose, but Kalshi still saw no near-term accord

U.S.-Iran nuclear deal odds increased on Kalshi after President Donald Trump said planned U.S. strikes on Iran would not proceed, but the prediction market still put a near-term agreement well below an even chance. CNBC reported that the contract for a deal before January 2027 rose to 29% early Sunday, Aug. 3, from 17% on Saturday evening.

The move was a 12-percentage-point increase, but it did not signal trader confidence that an accord was imminent. CNBC said Kalshi’s markets for the timing of a deal were below 50% at every reported deadline except the longest one, before January 2029.

What were the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal odds on Kalshi?

For an agreement before March 2027, Kalshi traders put the likelihood above 40% early Sunday, according to CNBC. That was up from 20% the prior evening. The two contracts moved higher after the reported change in the military and diplomatic backdrop, though neither indicated a majority expectation of a deal on those nearer timelines.

A prediction market lets people trade contracts tied to a specified future outcome. Its prices can be read as market-implied probabilities under that contract’s rules, and they can change quickly as news develops. They are not probabilities established by governments, diplomats or independent analysts.

CNBC reported that Trump said the United States and Iran were expected to hold negotiations on Monday. The network also reported that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said at a news conference there was no immediate plan for talks with the U.S.

What would count as a deal for the Kalshi contract?

According to CNBC’s description of the market terms, the outcome would be verified if the United States agreed to, signed or accepted a nuclear deal with Iran. That makes the odds a measure of this defined contract outcome, rather than a broad assessment of every diplomatic development involving the two countries.

CNBC also reported that oil prices fell after Trump’s announcements on negotiations and the halt to planned strikes. September West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 6% to below $80 a barrel, while October Brent crude futures declined by more than 4%, according to the network.

CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. Readers can review CNBC’s report for its full account of the dated market snapshot.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.