Bitcoin analysts split over $80,000 August call as key levels tighten

Bitcoin is back near $65,000, and traders are debating whether the move has enough real demand behind it to push toward $80,000 in August. For everyday crypto investors, the key issue is whether the latest rise is being driven by spot buying, which means direct purchases of bitcoin, or by derivatives activity that can reverse quickly.

Bitcoin was quoted at $64,648.79, up 2.98%, while several major tokens were also higher, including Ether at $1,877.32, up 4.60%, XRP at $1.10, up 3.46%, and Solana at $77.34, up 2.76%.

The bullish case centers on $61,000 support

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe said on X that Bitcoin was holding a key area around $61,000 and had turned several moving averages into support. A moving average is a trend line based on an asset’s average price over a set period, often used by traders to judge momentum.

Van de Poppe said he expected Bitcoin to move toward $68,000 within one to two weeks, followed by a possible continuation to the $75,000 to $80,000 range in August.

That near-term $68,000 target sits close to areas where order-book data show potential resistance. Resistance is a price zone where sell orders can slow or stop a rally. CoinGlass, a crypto market data provider, said whale orders pointed to $67,000 and above as a key area. Whales are large holders whose orders can affect short-term price action.

CoinGlass also identified support mainly between $63,500 and $63,800. Support is the opposite of resistance: a zone where buyers may step in and absorb selling pressure.

Some traders question the strength of the move

Other market participants were less convinced that Bitcoin’s latest gains were built on strong spot-market demand. Trader nichoxbt said on X that the move was being driven by perpetual futures rather than spot buying. Perpetual futures, often called perps, are crypto derivatives that let traders bet on price direction without owning the asset and without a fixed expiry date.

According to nichoxbt, the move was linked to the liquidation of short positions. A short position is a bet that an asset will fall. When prices rise against those positions, exchanges can force traders to close them, adding more buying pressure in the short term.

Commentator Exitpump also warned on X that the rally could fail above a recent trading range. Separately, trader and analyst Rekt Capital previously said Bitcoin’s July strength could reverse in August if it follows behavior seen during the 2022 bear market.

Macro data may set the tone

QCP Capital said in a Monday market note that crypto may need a broader macro catalyst to extend the move. A macro catalyst is a major economic event, such as inflation data or an interest-rate decision, that can shift investor appetite for risk.

The market is watching U.S. inflation reports ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this month. Lower-than-expected inflation data on Tuesday helped push Bitcoin back toward $65,000, according to Cointelegraph.

QCP said that if macro data and earnings continue to support a more positive risk backdrop, investor interest could move into digital assets that have lagged the equity rally. The firm also said crypto remains caught between supportive long-term factors and a market still waiting for stronger conviction.

For now, the levels traders are watching are clear: $61,000 as a deeper support marker, $63,500 to $63,800 as nearby support, and $67,000 to $68,000 as the next resistance zone. A break above that area would put the $75,000 to $80,000 August call in focus, while a failure there would strengthen the cautious case.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.