Trader says Bitcoin bear market hinges on two-month RSI hitting zero
Max Crypto says Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom will arrive when a long-term stochastic RSI gauge returns to zero, echoing prior cycle signals.
By Dev Ramirez · Crypto Correspondent
· 3 min read
A closely watched crypto trader is tying Bitcoin’s next bear-market bottom to one technical signal: the two-month stochastic relative strength index. For retail investors, the call is a reminder that some market watchers are reading Bitcoin’s current weakness through cycle indicators rather than spot price alone.
Trader Max Crypto said in a weekend post on X that Bitcoin has historically bottomed after its two-month stochastic RSI produced a bullish cross and then fell to zero. He pointed to 2014, 2018 and 2022 as prior examples, and said he expects the pattern to occur again in 2026.
The relative strength index, or RSI, is a momentum indicator that compares recent gains and losses to judge whether an asset looks stretched in either direction. Stochastic RSI is a faster-moving version that applies a similar reading to RSI itself, giving more weight to recent changes. Traders often describe readings below 30 as “oversold,” meaning selling pressure has been heavy, though that does not guarantee a reversal.
TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph showed Bitcoin’s two-month stochastic RSI at 4.81 after moving into the sub-30 oversold zone in March. Those levels were last seen a little over three years ago, according to the same data.
Why traders are watching RSI now
Bitcoin has been trading above $60,000 after returning above $64,000 earlier this month, according to Cointelegraph. The move followed bullish RSI divergences across several time frames. A bullish divergence happens when price action weakens while a momentum gauge such as RSI improves, a setup some traders read as a sign that selling pressure may be fading.
Other market participants have also been comparing the current setup with prior bear-market periods. In April, crypto trader Quantum Ascend said Bitcoin’s price history was “playing out nearly perfectly,” according to Cointelegraph, as daily stochastic RSI moves drew comparisons with the 2022 bear market.
On Sunday, trader and investor BitcoinHyper said on X that Bitcoin had formed a bullish divergence against the S&P 500 on the weekly RSI. That comparison puts Bitcoin’s momentum against the broad U.S. stock-market benchmark, rather than looking at Bitcoin in isolation.
Short-term signals remain mixed
Daily RSI has also been a focus. At the start of June, Bitcoin’s daily RSI fell to 15, a level trader Osemka later described on X as one of six “extremely powerful selling events.” Osemka said one previous case where extreme daily RSI at 15 did not break the lows, but only briefly moved below them, came near the end of an accumulation range in 2015.
Osemka said the current market had also only swept the low during a powerful move down, according to Cointelegraph. The trader suggested that another deeper RSI pullback could still appear before a price reversal, based on comparisons with earlier bear markets.
These readings are technical signals, not confirmed outcomes. Max Crypto’s thesis depends on Bitcoin’s two-month stochastic RSI falling to zero again, and the market has not reached that level yet, according to the TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph.
This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.
