Bitcoin bottom signals return as analysts watch short-term holders

Bitcoin’s latest rebound toward $65,000 has put a familiar bottom signal back in focus for traders trying to judge whether the 2026 downturn is running out of steam. For everyday investors, the key issue is whether this is the start of a more durable recovery or another bounce that fades once short-term buyers face pressure again.

The Bitcoin quant account Frank, named after economist Frank A. Fetter, said in posts on X that multiple indicators are flashing what it described as a “textbook” Bitcoin bottom. Frank argued that the setup will look clear in hindsight and pointed to Bitcoin’s 200-week simple moving average, or SMA, as a central part of the case.

A simple moving average is the average price over a set period, used to smooth out daily volatility. The 200-week SMA is watched because it captures a long-term trend across roughly four years of trading. Frank’s chart tracked that average alongside quantiles, which are statistical bands showing where price sits relative to its historical range.

Frank highlighted the ninth quantile as especially relevant, saying it has lined up with major reversal areas before. According to the analysis, that zone appeared near the low of the 2022 bear market and during the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash. Bitcoin’s price has returned to that same reversal area, Frank said.

Short-term holders are back in focus

The analysis also centered on short-term holders, a label for wallets that have held Bitcoin for up to six months without selling. This group often gets attention because it can represent newer buyers, speculators or investors with less tolerance for drawdowns.

Frank pointed to positive readings in short-term holder spent output profit ratio, known as STH-SOPR. The metric compares coins moved onchain in profit with coins moved at a loss. A positive reading suggests that short-term holders are selling some Bitcoin for gains rather than being forced out at losses.

Frank said on X that STH-SOPR had “flipped green,” meaning short-term holders were realizing profits. The account added that a market rewarding short-term holders is a feature associated with bull markets.

Cointelegraph reported that the findings fit with a wider view among some market participants that the 2026 Bitcoin bear market may be near its late stage. It also reported that several onchain indicators and price-based measures have reached levels last seen in 2022.

CryptoQuant says capitulation may not be complete

CryptoQuant contributor Trader Germini offered a more cautious read in a Wednesday blog post. Trader Germini said stronger bottoming areas have often seen STH-SOPR fall much further as short-term holders capitulate, meaning they sell after accepting sizable losses.

According to Trader Germini, the current STH-SOPR level has not reached the deeper capitulation area seen around 0.93 in past local bottom zones. The CryptoQuant contributor said that suggests the market has cooled but has not yet produced a strong short-term holder capitulation signal.

That leaves Bitcoin watchers with two competing signals: long-term price bands that resemble past bottom areas, and short-term holder behavior that has improved but may not yet show the kind of forced selling seen near some prior lows. Bitcoin was shown at $63,444.88 in the market data cited by Cointelegraph, up 0.99%.

This story draws on original reporting from Cointelegraph.