10-year Treasury yield climbs past 4.7% as oil nears $100

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moved above 4.7% on Thursday, reaching its highest level since January 2025, according to CNBC. For everyday investors, that matters because Treasury yields help set the tone for mortgage rates, loan costs and stock valuations.

The 10-year yield was recently up 5 basis points at 4.707%, CNBC reported. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. The yield earlier reached its highest point since Jan. 15, 2025, when it touched 4.790%.

Yields rise when bond prices fall, and that inverse relationship is central to how the Treasury market works. If investors demand a higher return to hold U.S. government debt, the yield goes up. Higher yields can make bonds more competitive with stocks and can also signal that investors expect inflation, interest rates or government borrowing costs to stay elevated.

Oil shock puts inflation back in focus

The move in Treasurys came as oil prices jumped following reports of attacks on tankers off Saudi Arabia and renewed U.S. threats to escalate strikes against Iran, CNBC reported. Higher oil prices can feed into inflation because energy costs affect transportation, manufacturing and household spending.

Brent crude futures for July delivery rose 5% to trade above $99 a barrel, near the $100 level, according to CNBC. Brent also hit its highest level since before the U.S. and Iran reached an agreement last month to end the war in the Middle East. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained about 4% to more than $90 a barrel.

Other parts of the Treasury market also moved higher. CNBC reported that the 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to track expectations for short-term Federal Reserve policy, rose more than 4 basis points to 4.343%. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed more than 4 basis points to 5.188%.

Labor data came in stronger than expected

New jobless claims also pointed to a still-firm labor market. Claims for the week ended July 18 totaled 187,000, below the 212,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, CNBC reported.

FWDBONDS chief economist Chris Rupkey tied the market reaction to both growth and energy risks. “The economy may be heating up today, but the path ahead for the employment markets could still be rockier with the escalation of the war in the Middle East causing a u-turn in energy prices virtually overnight this week,” Rupkey said, according to CNBC.

Investors are also waiting for Friday’s S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report, CNBC reported. PMI stands for purchasing managers’ index, a survey-based gauge used to assess activity in manufacturing and services.

Bond yields rose outside the U.S.

The rise in yields was not limited to the United States. CNBC reported that government bond yields also climbed across Asia and Europe on Thursday.

In the U.K., the 10-year government bond yield rose 4 basis points to above 5%, according to CNBC. The move came as investors weighed new Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s decision to cut property taxes on hospitality venues. CNBC reported that the 20% reduction in business rates is expected to cost about £100 million, or $134 million, and is aimed at shielding pubs, clubs and music venues from higher costs.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.