New Constructs calls Anthropic’s planned IPO “most ridiculous” of 2026
The research firm says a reported valuation above $2 trillion is hard to square with Anthropic’s losses and spending commitments.
By Theo Nakamura · Staff Writer
· 3 min read
New Constructs has called the reported Anthropic IPO valuation one of 2026’s biggest market risks, arguing that a potential price tag above $2 trillion is disconnected from the AI company’s current finances. For investors watching a possible public listing, the key point is that the valuation, timing and final deal terms remain unconfirmed.
The independent research firm, led by founder and CEO David Trainer, described Anthropic’s anticipated offering as the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026,” according to CNBC. Its conclusion is an analyst opinion, not a confirmed assessment of Anthropic’s future public-market performance.
Reuters reported in September that it had reviewed an Anthropic IPO prospectus and that a public sale could value the company at more than $2 trillion. A valuation is the price investors assign to a company’s equity. For public companies, market capitalization is generally calculated using the share price and shares outstanding, but Anthropic’s potential public-market value cannot be set until an offering is finalized and shares trade.
Why is New Constructs challenging Anthropic’s IPO valuation?
New Constructs’ bear case centers on the gap between the reported valuation target and Anthropic’s losses, infrastructure spending and competitive pressures. The firm said mounting operating losses and growing competition from open-source AI models left it doubtful that Anthropic had a viable business, CNBC reported.
According to Reuters’ account of the prospectus, Anthropic generated nearly $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025, after growing revenue 12-fold from the previous year. The company reported a $42 billion net loss, more than $8 billion of operating loss excluding certain fundraising-related writedowns, and $7.33 billion in compute and infrastructure spending during the year.
The $42 billion net-loss figure needs context. Reuters said roughly $34 billion was an accounting charge related to an increase in the estimated value of financing that could convert into Anthropic shares, rather than money spent running the business. That distinction does not erase the operating loss, but it means the headline net loss and operating costs are not the same measure.
Reuters also reported that Anthropic planned $518 billion in cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations in coming years. It said nearly one-quarter of 2025 revenue came from two customers, while the company warned that many large customers were not tied to long-term contracts and could reduce or halt spending.
What is the case for Anthropic’s growth?
Anthropic’s reported growth is the counterweight to New Constructs’ criticism. CNBC reported that Anthropic said in July its annualized revenue run rate had reached $65 billion, up sevenfold from a year earlier. That was a company claim, rather than audited financial reporting described in the available evidence.
Trainer’s previous IPO calls offer mixed context. New Constructs warned about WeWork before the company withdrew its planned IPO and later filed for bankruptcy, CNBC reported. The firm was also bearish on Allbirds. But it applied the same “most ridiculous” label to DoorDash’s 2020 IPO, and CNBC said DoorDash subsequently held up in public trading.
Anthropic declined to comment to Reuters, while CNBC reported that the company had not made its prospectus public and that New Constructs had not seen the actual filing. Investors therefore still lack a publicly available prospectus and publicly filed offering terms to assess any eventual deal in full.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.
