Kalshi traders see Coinbase volume trailing Wall Street estimates

Prediction-market traders are pricing in a softer quarter for Coinbase than Wall Street expects, according to CNBC. For retail investors, that matters because Coinbase depends heavily on trading activity, and lower activity can pressure the fees the crypto exchange collects.

On Kalshi, a platform where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, traders gave Coinbase only a 41% chance of reporting second-quarter trading volume above $160 billion, CNBC reported. Trading volume means the dollar value of transactions handled by the platform during the period.

That market-implied view sits below the analyst consensus of $168.5 billion, according to FactSet data cited by CNBC. Kalshi traders assigned just a 25% chance that Coinbase volume tops $170 billion.

The same traders were much more confident that volume would at least clear a lower bar. CNBC reported that Kalshi pricing put the odds of Coinbase topping $150 billion at 99% as of the morning of July 20.

Bitcoin weakness is the backdrop

Coinbase is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on July 30, according to CNBC. The report will show whether trading activity on the exchange kept sliding after two straight quarterly declines.

CNBC reported that Coinbase is expected to post a third consecutive quarterly drop in trading volume. Kalshi speculators also appear confident that the company’s total trading volume will fall below $200 billion for the first time since the third quarter of 2024, according to CNBC.

The pressure has come during a weaker period for crypto prices. CNBC reported that bitcoin fell again in the second quarter, losing about 12%. Since bitcoin peaked in October 2025, the token is down slightly less than 50%, while Coinbase shares have fallen more than 55%, according to CNBC.

That link is central to the Coinbase story. When bitcoin and other crypto prices fall, investors often trade less or reduce risk, which can mean fewer transactions on exchanges. For Coinbase, fewer trades can translate into lower transaction revenue, though the company’s full earnings report will provide the actual results.

How the Kalshi contract works

The Kalshi market cited by CNBC asks traders whether Coinbase’s second-quarter trading volume will finish above specific thresholds, including $150 billion, $160 billion and $170 billion. The contract will be resolved using data from Fiscal.ai, an investment research platform, CNBC reported.

Prediction markets do not guarantee an outcome. They reflect what traders are willing to pay for contracts tied to a specific event. In this case, the pricing shows that Kalshi participants were less optimistic than the FactSet analyst consensus about Coinbase clearing $160 billion in quarterly volume.

CNBC disclosed that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.