Meta Q2 earnings set to test AI spending case
Wall Street expects Meta revenue to rise about 27%, but investors are focused on whether AI spending can turn into returns.
By Dev Ramirez · Crypto Correspondent
· 3 min read
Meta Q2 earnings are due after regular trading closes Wednesday, with Wall Street looking for another strong quarter from the ad business and clearer proof that the company’s AI spending can pay off for shareholders.
Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect Meta to report adjusted earnings of $7.22 per share on revenue of $60.17 billion. That revenue estimate would be up about 27% from $47.52 billion in the same quarter a year earlier, according to the figures cited by CNBC.
The company’s core digital advertising business remains the main engine. CNBC reported that analysts expect Meta’s ad operation to keep benefiting from artificial intelligence improvements, which can help the company target ads, recommend content and improve performance for marketers.
What are investors watching in Meta Q2 earnings?
The biggest focus is capital expenditures, often shortened to capex. Capex means money a company spends on long-term assets, such as data centers, chips and servers, rather than day-to-day costs like salaries or rent.
For Meta, that spending has become central to the stock debate. The company is investing heavily in AI infrastructure as it tries to keep pace with Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft in data centers and the computing systems needed to train and run AI models.
In April, Meta raised its 2026 capex forecast to as much as $145 billion, up from a previous high of $135 billion, CNBC reported. Analysts expect second-quarter capex of $33.9 billion and full-year capex of $136.7 billion.
That spending comes as Meta’s shares have fallen 10% this year, according to CNBC, trailing the Nasdaq. Wedbush analysts wrote last week that “the gap between capex intensity and diversified monetization remains the central debate for the stock.” The firm has the equivalent of a hold rating on Meta shares and said that uncertainty is why it remains cautious despite what it sees as a valuation discount to peers.
Investors may also compare Meta’s spending plans with Alphabet’s. Alphabet shares fell last week after the company increased its 2026 capex guidance to as much as $205 billion from a prior ceiling of $190 billion, CNBC reported.
How is Meta trying to make money from AI?
Meta is trying to move beyond using AI inside Facebook, Instagram and its other apps. Investors will be listening for CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s comments on how the company plans to generate revenue from newer AI products and services.
Earlier this month, Meta introduced Muse Spark 1.1, which AI chief Alexandr Wang described as the company’s “strongest model for agentic and coding work yet,” according to CNBC. The company also released Muse Image, with some features available to creators and power users through monthly subscription plans first disclosed in May.
Meta hired Wang in June 2025 as part of a deal that included a $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI, Wang’s startup, CNBC reported. Since then, the company has been pursuing a broader AI strategy while committing large sums to infrastructure.
On Tuesday, Meta announced a venture with BlackRock for a $14 billion data center project in El Paso, Texas. CNBC also reported that Meta recently disclosed its Hyperion data center project in rural Louisiana would cost more than $50 billion, and that the company revealed plans earlier this month for a $9 billion data center in Alberta, Canada.
Unlike Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft, Meta does not have a large cloud infrastructure business. Zuckerberg has recently signaled that selling some AI capacity to outside customers is possible, CNBC reported. CNBC also confirmed earlier this month that Anthropic is in preliminary talks to lease AI-related computing capacity from Meta.
Beyond revenue and capex, analysts expect Meta to report 3.61 billion daily active people across its family of apps, according to StreetAccount. StreetAccount also expects average revenue per person of $16.65.
Meta’s Reality Labs unit, which develops virtual reality, augmented reality and AI-powered wearable products such as Ray-Ban Meta glasses, is expected to post a $5.07 billion quarterly loss on revenue of $423.4 million, according to StreetAccount.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.
