Oil majors earnings loom as Wall Street scans smaller energy stocks

Oil majors earnings are set to dominate the energy tape, with CNBC’s Power Insider reporting that analysts expect sharp profit growth from ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips. For everyday investors, the bigger question is whether high oil prices still offer the best setup, or whether Wall Street sees more room in smaller power, storage and nuclear-linked stocks.

CNBC reported that ExxonMobil and Chevron are due to report Friday, July 31, with Shell scheduled a day earlier. Marathon Petroleum and ConocoPhillips are expected to follow on Aug. 4 and Aug. 6. According to CNBC, oil analysts expect earnings per share, meaning profit divided across each share of stock, to double, triple or, in Marathon’s case, rise by more than 700%.

Those profit gains could draw political scrutiny, CNBC’s Brian Sullivan wrote, because they arrive while oil and refined product prices have been rising amid conflict risk tied to Iran and Russia.

Why are oil prices not higher right now?

Oil has swung sharply as Middle East headlines changed. CNBC reported that prices moved from above $90 a barrel to the high $60s during a fragile ceasefire, then briefly returned above $90 after Iranian militants launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan. The attack was repelled before causing damage, according to CNBC.

JPMorgan analyst Natasha Kaneva told CNBC that the market appears hesitant to keep adding the same risk premium because investors see a long stalemate as unlikely and are pricing in some kind of resolution. Prediction market Kalshi showed traders assigning a 65% chance that WTI crude finishes the year at $75 or higher, but only a 32% chance that it reaches at least $90, according to CNBC.

Energy flows are also changing. CNBC reported that Saudi Arabia is running its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea at maximum capacity, the United Arab Emirates is moving to build a route around the Strait of Hormuz, and Chevron is reviewing whether a damaged Iraq-to-Syria pipeline could be reopened. CNBC also reported discussion around an old Israeli pipeline that could connect with new Saudi infrastructure, though it said the outcome remains unclear.

Which energy stocks are analysts watching beyond the oil majors?

Bank of America named Chevron a top pick among integrated oil and refining companies, according to CNBC, citing CEO Mike Wirth’s potential bets in places including Venezuela and Iraq. Bank of America also moved ExxonMobil back to neutral after previously upgrading the stock, saying investors should consider taking profits from that call.

Outside oil and gas, Citi analyst Vikram Bagri upgraded Fluence and Energy Vault Holdings to buy/high risk, CNBC reported. Citi set a $24 target on Fluence and a $5 target on Energy Vault. Bagri said Fluence may miss consensus expectations in its upcoming earnings report, but he viewed those expectations as too high and pointed to its growing storage business and possible first hyperscaler customer order. For Energy Vault, he cited lower capital costs from new financing, recurring investment income growth and a broader customer base, while warning that battery storage competition is increasing.

Baird analyst Luke Junk also highlighted two stocks tied to power demand from artificial intelligence data centers, according to CNBC. He rated Forgent Power Solutions outperform with a $55 target, pointing to its role as an electrical equipment supplier, vertical integration and a $2.4 billion backlog. Junk also rated nVent Electric outperform with a $188 target, citing its liquid cooling business for data centers and its substation power exposure.

UBS analyst George Eadie upgraded uranium producer Cameco to buy, CNBC reported. Eadie said the stock’s recent pullback appeared tied to broader market and AI-related sentiment rather than a change in company fundamentals, and he cited record long-term uranium contract pricing.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.