Palantir earnings options price a larger move, not a Microsoft-style rebound
Palantir’s pre-earnings options activity favored calls and priced in a 10.5% move, though big trades also showed caution.
By Jordan Bell · Startups & Deals Reporter
· 3 min read
Palantir earnings options activity pointed to expectations for a larger-than-usual share-price swing as the company prepared to report after Monday’s close. For investors watching the stock’s nine-month bear market, the data showed strong demand for calls, but it did not establish a clear consensus that Palantir would repeat Microsoft’s recent post-earnings rally.
CNBC reported that 56,000 Palantir call contracts traded Monday, compared with fewer than 25,000 puts, citing ThinkOrSwim data. Calls accounted for $120 million of the $160 million in total options premium traded, according to SpotGamma, and the five highest-volume contracts were all calls.
A call gives its owner the right, without an obligation, to buy a stock at a preset price by a specified expiration date. A put gives the owner the corresponding right to sell, according to Cboe. Options can express a view on a stock’s direction, but they can also be used for hedging or as part of a more complex position, so headline volume alone does not reveal every trader’s view.
What do Palantir earnings options say about the expected move?
Cboe LiveVol pricing indicated an implied post-earnings move of 10.5%, CNBC reported. That was 3.1 percentage points above Palantir’s 7.4% median move over the previous year. An implied move is the magnitude of the price swing built into options pricing, rather than a forecast that shares will rise or fall.
There is also a recent reason for restraint. CNBC said Palantir options had priced in a larger move than the stock ultimately made after earnings in each of the prior five quarters. A bigger implied move therefore signals elevated expected volatility around the report, not a dependable outcome.
The most active contract among traders seeking an upside move was the $130 call expiring Friday. SpotGamma data showed buyers took 8,500 of those contracts, spending $4.4 million in premium, with the contracts trading at $5.30 each. CNBC calculated that Palantir shares would need to rise 8% before the weekend for those calls to pay off. The $150 and $140 calls ranked second and third by volume.
Why the options data were not wholly bullish
The call-heavy trading had an important counterweight. CNBC, citing Cboe data, said seven of the day’s eight largest trades by dollar amount were neutral or bearish. The largest was the sale of 800 $145 calls expiring in mid-December 2028, which brought the seller $3.4 million in premium. CNBC characterized that transaction as a wager against substantial gains, though an individual trade does not show the investor’s complete holdings or strategy.
The Microsoft comparison was narrow. CNBC said Microsoft had a similar-looking chart and options setup going into its own report, then rose 25% over three trading days. That sequence is a market comparison, not evidence that Palantir can deliver the same business or stock-price result.
The two companies also have a defined partnership. In an August 2024 announcement, Microsoft and Palantir said they would integrate Azure cloud computing and Azure OpenAI Service with Palantir products for U.S. defense and intelligence customers, subject to required government authorization and accreditation. That agreement describes a classified-cloud offering; it does not answer how Palantir’s earnings will be received by investors.
This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.
