Tesla options price in the stock’s biggest earnings swing in a year

Tesla reports earnings after Wednesday’s close, and the options market is bracing for a bigger-than-usual stock move. For everyday investors, that means the headline number will matter, but so will how much volatility traders have already priced into Tesla shares.

CNBC reported that current prices for at-the-money Tesla puts and calls imply a 5.76% move in either direction after the report. An at-the-money option has a strike price near the current stock price. A call gives the buyer the right to purchase shares at a set price, while a put gives the buyer the right to sell shares at a set price.

That 5.76% implied move would be the largest expected post-earnings swing for Tesla since October 2025, when options priced in a 6% move, according to CNBC. If the stock actually moves that much, it would be Tesla’s largest realized earnings move since last July.

Options flow tilts toward calls

On Tuesday, Tesla options activity leaned bullish by midday, CNBC reported. Traders had bought 244,000 calls versus 116,000 puts, and calls made up more than two-thirds of total premium traded. Premium is the price paid for an option contract.

The three busiest Tesla contracts by volume were all calls, according to CNBC. The largest amount of premium went into the 380-strike calls expiring Friday. Traders spent more than $15 million on those nearly at-the-money contracts, which cost about $11 each, CNBC reported.

Those calls would need Tesla shares to rise roughly 3% by the end of the week to become profitable, according to CNBC. That detail matters because options buyers can be right about direction and still lose money if the move is too small or comes too late.

The setup also comes with a reality check. Tesla has not been delivering large earnings-day moves recently. Over the past four quarters, the stock’s median earnings move was 3.5%, according to CBOE data cited by CNBC.

SpaceX adds another Musk-linked variable

Traders focused on Elon Musk’s companies are also watching SpaceX, which is scheduled to report earnings on Aug. 4, CNBC reported. It will be SpaceX’s first earnings report since its initial public offering last month.

The options market is pricing in a 12% move in either direction for SpaceX around that event, according to CNBC. After its June IPO, SpaceX shares climbed toward a $2 trillion valuation before falling sharply. CNBC reported that SpaceX is now valued just under $1.7 trillion, compared with Tesla’s $1.4 trillion valuation.

Gianni Di Poce, an instructor at TheoTrade, told CNBC by phone that Tesla has been trading in a range since the start of the year. He said an aggressive trader could argue Tesla is sitting near support and take a bullish view, while adding that he is longer-term bullish.

Di Poce also said the SpaceX situation is affecting Tesla sentiment as investors weigh which Musk-linked company to own and whether the companies could merge. CNBC described that as a market wildcard, and the merger idea remains framed as investor speculation in Di Poce’s comments.

For Tesla investors, the key takeaway is that options traders are paying for a move larger than Tesla has recently produced on earnings. That raises the bar for the stock reaction after the company reports.

This story draws on original reporting from CNBC.